Week Three Points and Highlights

Week Three of the 2015 season is in the books and here are a few things I came across.

- Nelson Cruz
The other day I posted the following tweet:

With every homerun Nelson Cruz hits, Robinson Cano's smile gets bigger and bigger. #NelsonCruz #RobinsonCano #SeattleMariners #Mariners
— Baseball Sisco (@BaseballSisco) April 16, 2015

I think I have to amend that tweet. With every homerun Nelson Cruz hits, the entire Seattle Mariners team's smiles get bigger and bigger. What a difference a year makes.

Last season I made mention that while I understood why Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners, I questioned the decision since he would not have much in the way of protection in the lineup. Well, things change this season with the offseason signing of Nelson Cruz. Again, what a difference a year makes.

Last season, Cruz signed for a budget $8-million with the Orioles coming off a 50-games suspension resulting from the Biogenesis scandal and put up an MVP caliber season for the Orioles. Now Cruz is batting after Cano in a lineup that is re-markedly improved along with a solid rotation. For the season Cruz is putting up a slash line of .324/.361/.750 with 9 homers and 20 RBI. So far the M's are sitting tied for 4th place at 7-11 with the surprising Houston Astros sitting pretty a-top the American League West 11-7. I can see the Mariners righting the ship and starting to club the ball. We'll see what happens as the season moves along.

- How About Those New York Mets
I mentioned that last week I would talk about the Metropolitanos. Well, the Mets ripped off an 11-game win streak including a 10-0 homestand against division rivals Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves. In doing so, the Mets tied a franchise record set by the 1969, 1972, 1986, and 1990 who all put up 11-game winning streaks. It stopped at 11-games when the Mets lost the first game of the Subway Series against the Yankees.

What I find impressive is that the Mets have done so without a number of players including captain David Wright and starting catch Travis D'Arnaud who both are missing time on the DL. In their place is Eric Campbell and rookie catcher Kevin Plawecki and both are producing. And what can I say about The Dark Knight: Matt Harvey. Its hard to believe that Harvey missed a season to Tommy John surgery. This kid is a total stud.

So far he's gone 4-0 with a 3.04 ERA with 22 hits allowed, 31 strikeouts and only 3 walks for a WHIP of 0.94. His swagger and confidence seems to be slowly seeping into the entire team. As Travis D'Arnaud said during the Mets vs. Yankees telecast on ESPN, the team believes that they can will. Who knows, if they can continue to win as division rivals Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins struggle, the N.L. East might just be their's to lose.

- A brief history of the Mets' eleven-game winning streaks by Chris McShane from Amazin Avenue.com

- Didi Gregorious and Tino Martinez
People fail to realize that it is very difficult to step in the shoes of a Baseball legend. Some might say that it is even harder when the legend plays for the New York Yankees. I notice that Yankee fans are being critical of Didi Gregorious' performance so far with the Yankees at shortstop. Not only is he learning a new league, he's doing it in the long shadow of future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter.

Look at the back page of the New York Daily News the day after the Yankees traded for Gregorious. Just the headline alone shows the expectations that have been placed on Gregorious. And this was before the season started and Gregorious was struggling. The situation reminds me of how Tino Martinez struggled at first base for the New York Yankees at the beginning of the 1996 season.

Martinez was traded from the Seattle Mariners to the Yankees in a December 7, 1995 trade with Jim Mecir and Jeff Nelson for Russ Davis and Sterling Hitchock. Martinez was already a solid first-basemen for the Mariners and similarly to Gregorious, his performance at first was shadowed by recently retired career Yankees legend Don Mattingly. Again, as with Gregorious, Martinez struggled amid great and lofty expectations but as the season progressed, he settled in and was a main player in the 1996 Yankees World Series Championship season.

People need to give Gregorious a chance. I mean a REAL chance. Not a month. Not two months. At the very least give the kid a full season to show his mettle. He's not going to be Derek Jeter. We've already seen him play. We just need to see Didi Gregorious play his game. Maybe he excels. Maybe he becomes the Yankees version of Royce Clayton.
who had the dubious honor of having to replace Ozzie Smith at shortstop for the Cardinals in 1997).

Nearly 20 Years Later, Another Yankees Replacement Is Struggling by Billy Witz from the New York Times dated April 18, 2015

- Waino done for the season?
The news coming out of St. Louis is not good. Reports state that Adam Wainright was placed on the DL with an left ankle/achilles tendon injury. If he tore the achilles tendon, his season is done. The Cardinals always seem to be able to fill spots due to injuries and according to the article Martinez, Wacha and Lynn Allow Cardinals to Absorb Adam Wainwright Injury by Anthony Witrado from Bleacher Report dated April 25, 2015, Witrado believes that:

There might not be a team in Major League Baseball more equipped to absorb the blow of losing their ace right now than the Cardinals. They have a rotation packed with front-line pitchers in their 20s, and all three of them have sub-2.00 ERAs through each of their first three starts this season.

Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez—both 23 years old—and Lance Lynn, 27, have helped Wainwright pitch the Cardinals to a 12-4 record. Those four are the reasons the rotation led the majors with a 2.06 ERA entering Saturday, a number lowered to 1.97 by Wainwright's four shutout innings before the injury.

It would seem that Cole Hamels would be a suitable replacement for Wainwright in the rotation. The question is, are the Cardinals willing to trade from their surplus of prospects in order to get Hamels. Since in this situation, the Phillies hold the seller's advantage, the Cardinals might have to overpay if they want Hamels services. But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's see what happens after Wainwright's MRI.

AS OF 7:30PM ON 4/27: Adam Wainwright was diagnosed with a torn left achilles tendon which will cause him to miss 9-12 months. 

- Kansas City Royals are a-fighting
So the Royals have started the 2015 season with three bench clearing incidents. Week one had Yordano Ventura jawing with Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. Then in week two you had a back and forth plunking matches and three straight days of bench clearing between the Royals and the Oakland A's including Yordano Ventura getting ejected when he hit Brett Lawrie with a pitch after Josh Reddick homered. Week three was capped with a full blown brawl started by words being exchanged between Yordano Ventura and Adam Eaton of the Chicago White Sox which led to the suspension of six players including Ventura who was given a seven day suspension.

You see a pattern here? Like I told my friend Melvin the other day: Ventura is young, full of piss and vinegar. I mean, he's become the ace of the staff after James Shields signed with the San Diego Padres. So he must be on cloud nine and is showing his swagger every start. But he needs to dial it down before someone gets hurt.

This is where old time baseball people bemoan the DH since retribution can't be exacted on the guilty party. I think if this was in the NL, Ventura would be a bit more cautious in his plunking of opposing players and his excitable mannerism. Back in the day, he would have taken one to the ribs. I know the Royals want to show the entire league that their World Series appearance was not a fluke. But someone needs to take Ventura aside and let him know that not only is an opposing player at risk of getting hurt due to his behavior, a fellow teammate can get hurt through Baseball's form of retribution. Whether he learns or not is something we'll have to keep an eye on after he serves his suspension.

Well that's all for this week. I'll be back next week with my POV on the fourth week of the MLB season.

Until Then Keep Playing Ball,
Baseball Sisco
#baseballsisco
#baseballsiscokidstyle

Can Matt Harvey's 2013 Season Be A Repeat of Felix Hernandez's 2010?

After last night's start Matt Harvey of the New York Mets sits with a 7-1 record with a league leading 2.00 ERA, 132 strikeouts and 0.85 WHIP in 17 games started. He has nine no-decisions so far this season and the lack of more wins due to his team's lack of run support and bullpen's inability to hold leads are causing the Mets' faithful to get more and more frustrated (or disappointed for Harvey as Sean stated yesterday). I can't help but wonder if Harvey continues as he is as a victim of his team, can he win the National League Cy Young in the same kind of fashion that Seattle Mariners starter Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young with a 13-12 record in 2010.

The winning of the American League Cy Young by Hernandez was historical in the sense that never had a starter won the award with so little wins (in a non shortened season) and leading (or being close to the top) of most of the major statistical categories. Also historical was the emphasis by the voters to overlook the wins and loss record of Hernandez and realize that he was a league leader that had no support from his offense throughout the year and that he shouldn't be penalized for that. Here are Hernandez's statistics from the 2010 season:

Player		W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV		IP	H	R	ER	OBA	BB	K	WHIP
Felix Hernandez		13	12	2.27	34	34	6	1	0		249.2	194	80	53	.221	70	232	1.057

Here are Harvey's statistics up to today's date:

Player		W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV		IP	H	R	ER	OBA	BB	K	WHIP
Matt Harvey		7	1	2.00	17	17	0	0	0		117	76	26	26	.184	24	132	0.85

Here is the breakdown of Hernandez's starts in 2010 by season halves:

1st Half: 19 starts, 7-5, 2.88 ERA, 137.2 IP, 131 K, 42 BB, 44 R, 42 ER 

2nd Half: 15 starts, 6-7, 1.53 ERA, 112 IP, 101 K, 28 BB, 31 R, 19 ER

Harvey's first half performance is better than Hernandez's by a significant amount (with probably two starts to go) with the exception of innings pitched. Hernandez just tore it up in the second half.

Here is a little more statistical analysis by Bob Roarman from November 19, 2010 on the White Sox Interactive forum page:

Last season Hernandez had 30 quality starts. There was only one of those quality starts that could be considered "cheap" in where he just barely met the requirements. Pretty damn good, led the MLB, and I hope by god that we can all at least agree that quality starts is a legit stat, something that can help measure a pitcher's performance. Help to measure, understand I'm not going on that one stat alone, I'm just using it as a jumping off point.

Assuming we can agree on that, let's delve deeper into those starts and start to expand analysis and not just spout off those darned tricky advanced stats like WAR and ERA+ and confuse everyone. So out of those 30 quality starts, Felix had 13 wins. His stat line in those 13 wins:

106+ IP, 0.84 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 117 K, 19 BB, 10 ER.

About as good as you can possibly be. But there were still 17 games he either got the loss or a no decision. Of those 17 quality starts where he didn't get a win this is his stat line:

0 wins, 8 losses, 9 no decisions. 123 IP, 2.20 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 30 ER, 97 Ks, 103 H, 30 BB.

Wow, still great numbers. So how the hell did he not get a single win out of any those games? Going further into those 17 games while he was still the pitcher of record, this is what the Seattle offensive juggernaut supported him with:

24 runs (not even a run and a half a game) a .208 collective batting average, .268 OBP, .295 SLG and hit .149 (15-101) w/RISP.

That is what you call stunningly and shamefully ****ing awful. One of, if not the, worst offenses of the past decade. 7 of those games they scored jack **** while he was in the game. They scored a whopping one run 4 times and 2 runs twice. But let's go even deeper, just for fun, and see how the bullpen did in those same games.

Of those same 17 games, Felix completed two of them (both losses of course) and the bullpen pitched in the remaining 15 games. In 3 of those games, they actually did their job and let up nothing. In 12 of the 15 games this is how they fared:

31 IP, 45 H, 23 BB, 32 ER (!!), 9.29 ERA, 2.194 WHIP

That's Boone Logan bad. "No chance" bad.

Hernandez's overall numbers in his 30 quality starts are:
229.2 IP, 167 H, 40 ER, 56 BB, 214 SO, 11 HR, 1.57 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

Great numbers. Couldn't ask for those kind of numbers. But that's what he put up. And he has 13 wins to show for it. The funny thing is that if he's just a bit worse than a world beater in those games, he probably has even less wins. Maybe he's not even over .500, who knows. The point is looking at the number of wins he has does not even come within a mile of how well he pitched this season or how any other pitcher performed. You're putting way too much emphasis on something that doesn't account for near enough of how well or poorly a player pitched during the season.

Like I said, you don't have to be a stat geek or a "propeller head" to understand why Hernandez won the Cy Young. He just had an absolutely historically bad offense which gave him less than minimal support in the vast majority of games he pitched and the bullpen definitely was not doing him any favors either. You can't rack up 19-20 wins if your team struggles to score a little over 1 run a game in over half the games you pitch in. Period. You can pitch lights out (and he did in those games) and most of the time it won't matter and it was no different for Felix. He was fortunate to finish with 13 wins. That's insane to have to say that, but it's true.

Its hard not to make a comparison with Harvey (at this point in time) and with Hernandez's 2010 season. It just seems that Harvey needs to throw complete game shutouts just to preserve any lead that he might have. It seems that Mets manager Terry Collins is against the idea of leaving his pitcher out there to burn himself out throwing complete games. As has happened all season, Harvey will continue to be at the mercy of his teammates if he pitches solid games and leaves with leads.

I believe if Matt Harvey can keep up with the way he's pitching (barring an undefeated season by Arizona's Patrick Corbin or an injury to Harvey) he would be a favorite to win the NL Cy Young. The precedent has already been set in 2010. We'll have to wait and see if History can repeat itself in 2013.

For Further Reading
- Click Here for Matt Harvey's season statistics from MLB.com
- Click Here for Felix Hernandez's statistics from the 2010 season from Baseball Reference.com
- Click Here for Felix Hernandez's career statistics from Baseball Reference.com

Taking Another Look At The Potential All-Star Game Starters

Back on May 10th, in a post entitled Early Favorites To Start the 2013 All-Star Game, I looked at who could be the potential starters for both leagues at this year's Midsummer Classic which will be hosted at Citi Field on July 16, 2013. Where on that date I stated that The New York Mets' Matt Harvey and the Boston Red Sox's Clay Buchholz should be the starters up to that point, other pitchers have made their mark since then.

While Clay Buchholz is still the heavy favorite to start the All-Star Game for the American League, his being on the disabled list is opening the door for Detroit Tigers starter Max Scherzer to get consideration for the starting nod. As I described with more detail in my post from June 12, 2013 entitled I Might Have To Start Calling Tim McCarver Karnak Scherzer is at the top of the league in almost every pitching statistic. Here are his statistics up to today:

Player		W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV		IP	H	R	ER	OBA	BB	K	WHIP
Max Scherzer		10	0	3.08	14	14	0	0	0		96.1	64	34	33	.189	24	116	0.91

Here are Buchholz's statistics up to today:

Player		W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV		IP	H	R	ER	OBA	BB	K	WHIP
Clay Buchholz		9	0	1.71	12	12	1	1	0		84.1	57	16	16	.195	29	81	1.02

The biggest difference in both pitchers is the amount of runs allowed. Buchholz has allowed half as many runs  as Scherzer has while Scherzer holds an advantage in walks, strikeouts, WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched) with 12 more innings pitched than Buchholz.

Bartolo Colon is a darkhorse to get the starting nod with a surprising 9-2 record with a 2.89 ERA. As well as Hishashi Iwakuma who sits at 7-2 with a 2.06 ERA.

I really think that the A.L. starting nod is a real toss-up at the moment with either Scherzer and Buchholz getting the nod. I think the game changer here is where Buchholz sits after coming off the DL and how he pitches after that.

In the National League, I believe that Arizona Diamondback starter Patrick Corbin has the advantage in getting the starting nod for the Senior Circuit but has two members of the St. Louis Cardinals hot on his heels.

Corbin is still undefeated at 9-0 as of today and is near the top of most of the National League pitching catergories. Here is where he stands as of today:

Player		W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV		IP	H	R	ER	OBA	BB	K	WHIP
Patrick Corbin		9	0	2.28	14	14	1	0	0		94.2	73	25	24	.212	23	74	1.01

Lance Lynn and Adam Wainwright of the N.L. Central leading St. Louis Cardinals have also made their case for the All-Star starting nod with their performances this season.

Player		W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV		IP	H	R	ER	OBA	BB	K	WHIP
Lance Lynn		10	1	3.42	15	15	0	0	0		92.0	73	35	35	.221	34	94	1.16

Player		W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV		IP	H	R	ER	OBA	BB	K	WHIP
Adam Waiwnright		10	4	2.37	15	15	3	2	0		110.0	102	31	29	.248	9	116	1.01

While I think that Corbin is still in the lead, Wainwright with 4 losses makes a compelling case with his three complete games, two shutouts and only NINE walks allowed. I also think Jordan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals is a dark horse with a 10-3 record with a 2.26 ERA. 

Matt Harvey has been a victim of his team's lack of run support and sits at 6-1 with a 2.16 ERA. While I don't think he'll get the starting nod, I believe he will be selected to join the NL All-Stars and will get a well deserved inning in front of the hometown crowd at Citi Field. 

It'll be interesting to see where these starters stand by the time the All-Star game rolls around and who actually gets the nod to start for both leagues. Stay tuned folks.

Sisco Kid

Early Favorites To Start the 2013 All-Star Game

Since we are reaching the halfway point in the month of May, I wanted to take a look at the potential starting pitchers for both leagues in this year's All-Star game that will be played at Citi Field. I have to say that the choice in the National League might be a bit easier to predict that in the American League. 

I believe that hometown favorite Matt Harvey (barring any injury and/or slumping) will start the All-Star Game for the senior circuit. Harvey is currently at 4-0 with a 1.28 ERA in 49.1 IP with 22 hits and 7 runs (7 earned) allowed. He's struck out 58 while allowing 12 walks for a WHIP of 0.69. Opposing hitters are batting .133 against him. 

The most serious competition for Harvey is Jordan Zimmerman who is at 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA in 51 IP with 33 hits and 9 runs (9 earned) allowed. He's struck out 34 while walking 9 batters for a WHIP of 0.82. Opposing hitters are batting .182 against him.

If the Mets would score more runs in games where Harvey has started, he could easily be 6-0 or even 7-0. Other potential starters for the NL are Tim Hudson of the Braves (4-1 3.83 ERA), Patrick Corbin of the Diamondbacks (5-0 1.75 ERA) and Lance Lynn of the Cardinals (5-1 2.72 ERA). 

The American League has a bit more of a logjam when it comes to potential starting pitchers in the All-Star Game. I believe that based on current pitching performance (barring injury and/or slumping), Clay Buchholz of the Boston Red Sox will start for the American League. At 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA in 50.2 IP with 34 hits and 9 runs (9 earned) allowed. He's struck out 56 while walking 18 batters for a WHIP of 1.03. Opposing hitters are batting .193. I don't believe that he is a total lock for the starting position since both Matt Moore of the Tampa Bay Rays and Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers have legitimate claims to the starting slot in the All-Star game. 

Moore is also 6-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 42 IP with 26 hits and 10 runs (10 earned) allowed. He's struck out 43 hitters while walking 23 for a WHIP of 1.17. Opposing batters are hitting .176 against him. 

Darvish is at 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 45.2 IP with 27 hits and 13 runs (13 earned) allowed. He's struck out a league leading 72 hitters while walking only 15 for a WHIP of 0.92. Opposing batters are hitting 1.69. 

Other starters that might make the contest interesting are Jeremy Guthrie of the Kansas City Royals (5-0 2.28 ERA) and Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners (5-2 1.53 ERA).

So there you go folks. My bet is on Harvey vs. Buchholz at the 2013 Mid-Season Classic in Flushing, NY. Let's see if it happens. What do you think. Yea? Nay? 

Sisco Kid