My Picks For The Hall of Fame Class of 2014

Happy New Year 2014 to all of you Baseball aficionados out there. May the New Year bring you health, prosperity and a playoff spot for your favorite team in October. January is a very exciting month for Baseball fans. After a seemingly dull Winter Meetings this past December, January is a tense month. Why? Its in January when we found out what the results are of the Hall of Fame vote by the Baseball Writers of America. This year proves to be an interesting vote for a number of reasons.

One reason is that last year no one was inducted into the Hall of Fame because of the issue of some of the Steroid Era players becoming eligible almost en-masse. Many of the voters chose to not vote for those players who they believed were tainted for playing during that era even if they were not steroid users. Secondly, will the voters continue to not vote for the Steroid era players or will they choose to vote for the players based on their merits rather than the era that they played in. Thirdly, this year's ballot is stacked with (in my opinion) nineteen players who had potential Hall of Fame careers. Voters can vote for up to ten players but do not have to vote for ten. They can choose to just vote for one or two players, even totally abstaining from voting. Having so many players eligible with only ten maximum slots per ballot will prove to be difficult for many to get the necessary 75% of the vote for enshrinement. I believe only three players will get the necessary 75% or more for enshrinement.

We already know that managers Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre will be enshrined due to their election to the Hall of Fame by the Expansion Era committee. It's the enshrinement of Bobby Cox that leads me to believe that Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine will join him on the podium July 27, 2014. This is not to say that Maddux and Glavine would not have been enshrined without Cox getting voted in. Far from it. Rarely do you have the chance as a Baseball fan to see two of the three greatest pitchers of arguably the best starting trio of all time get inducted into the Hall of Fame at the same time. Add to that the potential to be inducted along side with their manager. The only thing that would make the induction of Cox, Glavine and Maddux better would be the enshrinement of John Smoltz at the same time. It was too bad for us that Smoltz decided to stick around that one extra year by pitching for the Red Sox and Cardinals in 2009 or else we'd have a quartet of Atlanta Braves joining the greats in Cooperstown.

I also believe that Frank Thomas will get the necessary 75% of the vote. The Big Hurt was called that for a reason...and it wasn't because of his injuries later in his career. Thomas was one of the most fearsome hitters of his generation who not only hit for power but also hit for average. Before injuries started to derail Thomas, he averaged from 1990-2000 a slash line of .321/.440/.579 with an average of 33 doubles, 1 triple, 31 homeruns and 108 RBI's. During that period Thomas also averaged 79 strikeouts and 108 walks leading the league in walks four times (1991, 1992, 1994, 1995) which showed that he wasn't just a free swinging strikeout slugger that we seem to see more and more today. Thomas was in the top ten of American League MVP voting nine times while winning the award twice back-to-back in 1993 and 1994. Though he did play in the Steroid Era, I don't see the voters keeping him out. But we'll have to wait until January 8th to see if any of the players I mention get enshrined. So where does this leave the remaining sixteen potential Hall of Famers.

I think Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez get enshrined in a couple more years when the number of potential Hall of Famers becoming eligible for enshrinement decreases. In 2015 you have what I believe are three "no-brainers" up for enshrinement: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz. Add Carlos Delgado and Gary Sheffield to the mix and it still proves to be a crowded ballot. 2016 has Trevor Hoffman and Ken Griffey Jr. as my potential "no-brainers". 2017 has Vladimir Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez becoming eligible for enshrinment. Based on this, the players currently on the ballot that have time on their side have a good chance at being elected in within the next five years.  

As much as I think Jack Morris should get in, I don't think he'll get enough votes in his last season on the ballot. Nor will Don Mattingly.  As much as the anti-Steroid group will hate me for saying this, I think Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens get in within ten years. I don't think McGwire, Palmiero and Sosa get enough votes by their 15th year to get in. Mussina, Piazza and Schilling are up in the air for how long I think they'll take before getting in.

Again, until January 8th comes around, this is all just speculation on my part. I'll be awaiting the results as will most other Baseball fan around the world.

Sisco Kid

The Big Hurt, Tom Glavine plus three guys named Kent, Maddux and Mussina for 2014

Frank Thomas and Tom Glavine have officially announced their retirement from professional baseball though both have been out of the game since 2008. Thomas was last seen playing for the Toronto Blue Jays while Glavine was cut from the Atlanta Braves to make room for rookie phenom Tommy Hanson. So the Hall of Fame Class of 2014 is shaping up quite nicely. In addition to Thomas and Glavine, we also see Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina round out the field of potential Hall of Famers. Let's look at how these players within the numbers.

1. Frank Thomas
Thomas had to be one of the most intimidating hitters in the early to mid nineties (aka Pre Steroid Era). Thomas was a perennial MVP candidate with 10 ten finishes from 1991-1997 with two straight MVP awards in 1993 and 1994. In 19 seasons, Thomas had a career batting average of .301 where he amassed 2468 hits (495 2B, 12 3B, 521 HR) and 1704 RBI. Thomas also registered more walks than strikeouts (1667-1397) which for a slugger of Thomas' caliber is rare (Albert Pujols comes to mind). In terms of modern metrics, Thomas had a career OBP% of .419 and a SLG% of .555 for an OPS of .974. His best season was not either of his MVP seasons but 1997 with the Chicago White Sox where he batted a league leading .347 with 35Hr and 125 RBI. In total, he had 184 hits including 35 2B and drew 109 BB with only 69 K's. Thomas also registered an OPS of 1.069 (.456 OBP and .611 SLG). Thomas was a 2-time American League MVP, a 5-time All-Star and a 4-time Silver Slugger awards. Thomas' #35 will be retired in a ceremony later this upcoming season by the Chicago White Sox.

For an article written about Frank Thomas by Phil Rogers in the Chicago Tribune on February 12, 2010, click here
For an article on the White Sox retiring Frank Thomas' #35, click here

2. Tom Glavine
Tom Glavine made up one third of possibly the best trio to ever grace a pitcher's mound. Glavine made up the core of the Atlanta Braves dynasty with future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and John Smoltz. Glavine was a 5-time 20-game winner and registered 6 top 5 finishes for the National League Cy Young Award winning the award twice in 1991 and 1998. In 22 seasons, Glavine amassed a 305-203 record with a career 3.54 ERA. Glavine struck out 2607 batters while only walking 1500 (145 IBB). His career WHIP was 1.314 and he completed 56 games with 25 shutouts. Glavine's best season was his Cy Young Award season of 1991 where he had a 20-11 record with an ERA of 2.55 and 246.1 innings pitched for the National League Champion Atlanta Braves. Glavine gave up 201H, 83 Runs (70 earned runs) 192 K's 69 BB(6 IBB) and a WHIP of 1.095. Glavine also led the league with 9 complete games. Glavine is 4th all time in wins by a left-handed pitcher, trailing only Warren Spahn (363), Steve Carlton (329) and Eddie Plank (326), all of which are Hall of Famers. Glavine was a 2-time National League Cy Young Award winner, a 10-time All-Star and a 4-time Silver Slugger award winner.

For an article on Tom Glavine's retirement from the Atlanta Journal Constitution by David O'Brien from February 11, 2010, click here
For an article from MLB.com by Mark Bowman on Glavine's retirement, click here

3. Jeff Kent
Jeff Kent set the tone for the power hitting second basement that have been popping up as of late. in 17 seasons, Kent had a career batting average of .290 where he amassed 2461 hits (560 2B, 47 3B, 377 HR) and 1518 RBI. In terms of modern metrics, Kent had a career OBP% of .356 and a SLG% of .500 for an OPS of .855. His best season was his MVP season of 2000 with the San Francisco Giants where he batted a career best .334 with 33Hr and 125 RBI. In total, he had a career best 196 hits including 41 2B, 7 3B and drew 90 BB with 109 K's. Kent also registered an a career best OPS of 1.021 (.424 OBP and .596 SLG). Kent was the 2000 National League MVP, a 5-time All-Star and won 4-time Silver Slugger awards.

4. Greg Maddux
Greg Maddux was a throwback pitcher who in his prime dominated the league with finesse and sheer determination. Madduz was a workhorse, leading the Atlanta Braves to the postseason every season he pitched there while winning 3 straight National League Cy Young Awards in Atlanta from 1993-1995 (Maddux won 4 straight, his first was with the Chicago Cubs in 1992). In 23 seasons, Maddux amassed a 355-277 record with a career 3.16 ERA. Maddux struck out 3371 batters while only walking 999 (177 IBB) while pitching a total of 5008.1 innings (WOW!!!). His career WHIP was 1.143 and he completed 109 games with 35 shutouts. Maddux's best season was his Cy Young Award season of 1995 where he had a 19-2 record with an league leading ERA of 1.63, 209.2 innings pitched, 10 complete games and 3 shutouts for the World Series Champion Atlanta Braves (there were only 144 games played in the 1995 season due to the players strike of 1994). Maddux gave up with 147H, 39 Runs (38 earned runs) 181 K's 23 BB(3 IBB) and a WHIP of 0.811. Maddux was a 4-time National League Cy Young Award winner, an 8-time All-Star and an 18-time Gold Glove winner. Some baseball experts believe that no one will ever reach the magical 300 win plateau. I think that goal is still attainable by pitchers like Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia. What I do believe is unattainable is the 350 win plateau. I believe that Greg Maddux will be the last man to do so. 355 wins is just mind blowing.

5. Mike Mussina
Mike Mussina was another pitcher, who like Maddux, could be counted on to be the workhorse of the rotation. Also similarly to Maddux, Mussina was able to dominate hitters not with sheer power but through finesse. Mussina was able to register an under 4.00 ERA for 11 of his 18 years pitching in the American League, which (then as in now) is no easy feat. In 18 seasons, Mussina amassed a 270-153 record with a career 3.68 ERA. Mussina struck out 2813 batters while only walking 785 (29 IBB) while pitching a total of 3562.2 innings. His career WHIP was 1.192 and he completed 57 games with 23 shutouts. Mussina's best season was 1995 where he had a 19-9 record with an ERA of 3.29, 221.2 innings pitched, 7 complete games and a league leading 4 shutouts for the Baltimore Orioles (there were only 144 games played in the 1995 season due to the players strike of 1994). Mussina gave up with 187H, 86 Runs (81 earned runs) 158 K's 50 BB(4 IBB) and a WHIP of 1.069. Mussina was a 5-time All-Star and a 6-time Gold Glove award winner. I know there will be some baseball writers that will hold against Mussina that he only won 20 games once (2008) and never won the Cy Young Award (sounds similar to the arguments made against Blyleven). But they need to keep in mind that Mussina pitched in the American League in an era dominated mainly by both Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens (6 combined American League Cy Young Awards). Mussina was in the top ten of Cy Young Voting nine times never ending up worse than 6th. Had Mussina kept pitching, maybe we'd be talking about how he would be reaching the 300 win plateau. But he decided that family was more important and retired. He should be commended for it instead of having it work against him come 2014 when he is eligible for enshrinement into the Hall of Fame.

Will the five players I listed all get in on the first ballot? I don't think Kent or Mussina will. Thomas is somewhat on the fence for first year election. I think we'll have to see where Edgar Martinez ranks by 2014 since Thomas did spend a number of his at-bats at the DH position. I believe all three will eventually get in. As for first year enshrinement, definitely Maddux and Glavine. No doubt about it. They'll be keeping a place for John Smoltz in the Hall whenever he decides he's done.

FH