Latinos on the Hall of Fame Ballot

Now that the uproar of this past Hall of Fame election has died down, I want to focus on the Latino ballplayers that are currently eligible for the Hall.

The last Latino to get enshrined into Cooperstown was Roberto Alomar in 2011 in his second year of eligibility with 90.0% of the vote. So who is the next one to be inducted.

Before I go into who is next allow me to elaborate in who can get elected to the Hall of Fame. To be eligible for induction, players must have spent 10 years in MLB and must be five years removed from their playing das. If a player receives less than 5 percent of the vote, he is no longer eligible. In addition, if a player appears on the ballot 15 times and does not reach the necessary 75% then he is no longer eligible for enshrinement. Now that I got the rules out of the way, here is who I think will be the next Latino(s) to get in the Hall of Fame.

I would have to say that the next one to get in is Pedro Martinez who will be eligible for the Hall of Fame in the year 2015 with Vladimir Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez in 2017. Vlad just announced that he will be attempting to make a comeback this season. If he happens to play one game for a MLB team then his first year for eligibility would be pushed back. I feel these three players are all first ballot caliber players. Manny Ramirez is also eligible for induction in 2017 but with his two positive tests and suspensions for violation of the MLB Drug Policy who can really say if he ever gets in. Talk of positive tests and suspensions brings me to Rafael Palmiero.

Palmiero is a member of a rare club of one of four players to reach BOTH the 500 Home Run and 3000 hit plateaus. Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray are the other three and are members of the Hall of Fame. I believe that Palmiero will not be joining them since I feel that this will be his last year on the ballot. Look at his showing in the last three years:

11.0% in 2011
12.6% in 2012
8.8% in 2013

He lost ground in a year that saw first year eligible candidates Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio not get elected. Take into consideration that next year's first ballot eligibles include Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina among others. Next year will prove to be the deepest Hall of Fame ballot ever and the voters can vote for up to 10 players. I really have a hard time seeing Palmiero getting more than 8% let alone the necessary 5% to stay on the ballot.

The other Latino who is still on the ballot after multiple years is Edgar Martinez. Martinez is considered by many as being the best Designated Hitter of all time. He has been much more consistent when it comes to his standing on the Hall of Fame ballot. In his first year Martinez received:

36.2% in 2010
32.9% in 2011
36.5% in 2012
35.9% in 2013

Given the fact that next year is a stacked ballot, Martinez might drop a bit in terms of percentage but is in good shape to recoup his losses and even move up closer to the necessary 75% within the next five to ten years.

Sammy Sosa received 12.5% in his first year and who can tell where he'll rank in the next few years. Bernie Williams received 3.2% of the vote this year and is no longer on the ballot.

So what do you gals and guys think. Agree? Disagree? Leave me a comment and let me know what your thoughts are.

FH

The 3000-Hit Club Post Derek Jeter

I read an interesting article in today's New York Times written by Neil Payne entitled After Jeter Reaches 3,000 Hits, Who's Likely Next?. In the article, Payne describes who might be the next players to reach the lofty 3,000 hit plateau after Derek Jeter (who is currently at 2,990 hits). The method in which Payne reaches his conclusion is based on Bill James' theory called the Favorite Toy. As per Payne:

the Favorite Toy, a simple means of projecting performance based on a player’s age and most recent career trends.

The formula essentially asks and answers three questions:

1. How far is a player from the milestone in question?
2. How quickly is he approaching the milestone?
3. How much time does he have left to attain the milestone?

So based on the model, the next three players who have the highest probability of reaching 3,000 hits are Alex Rodriguez (2,731), Johnny Damon (2,637) and Albert Pujols (1,969). Time is on the side of these players, especially Pujols. Both Rodriguez and Damon are in their mid to late 30's and I believe will continue to be productive players. Pujols is truly amazing to me since at the age of 31 he is only 31 hits away from 2,000 hits and 78 homeruns from 500. If based on his average of 197 hits per season (his highest of of 212 in 2003 and lowest of 177 in 2006) he's on pace to hit 3,000 hits during the 2017 season. God knows how many homeruns he'll have at that point. Like I said before: truly amazing.

A name that I find surprising that is missing from the top of the list is that of Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. Payne says the following about Ichiro:

Even for a great hitter like Ichiro Suzuki, the trends are pointing down. He ranks 11th among active players, but he is 37, needs 690 hits to reach 3,000 and has fallen off this season

So the man in 37 and is currently having himself an "Un-Ichiro" type season. Keep in mind that even though he currently has 2,310 hits in 11 Major League Baseball season, this is a man that also has 1,285 hits while playing in Japan for the Orix Blue Wave of the Nippon Professional Baseball League. So his total hit figure is 3,595. His track record has proven that he is a consistent hit machine. He has averaged 224 hits a season since his debut in the Majors in 2001 (his highest was 262 in 2004 and his lowest was 206 in 2005) and until he shows me in more than half a year that his skills are in decline, I am going to expect him to live up to his prior production. I'm not saying that age doesn't play a role in the diminishing of skills it does, but I just don't think that metrics of any kind can quantify a man's desire and motivation to achieve personal goals. I think that Ichiro will be the first Japanese ballplayer to be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame at Cooperstown regardless if he reaches the 3,000 hit plateau but how better to nail down his legacy by getting to 3,000. Whether he gets there playing with the Mariners or not is another story for another day.

I do agree with Payne when he says it might be difficult for Ivan Rodriguez (2,835) and Omar Vizquel (2,823) to reach 3,000. Both players have become utility players and getting over 175 hits to reach 3,000 in that role makes it difficult. The necessary at-bats are just not there. An intriguing player is Vladimir Guerrero.

At 2,494 hits, he will reach the 2,500 hit mark within the next week or two. Based on last year's resurgent season with the Texas Rangers, Guerrero can still be a productive player though he can pretty much only do so in the DH position. I'm not sure if the lack of interest in Guerrero during last season's off-season is a reflection of Guerrero's skills but will the at-bats be there for Guerrero to get the necessary 500 hits to reach 3,000.

As it stand today, the 3,000 hit club only has 27 members. After Jeter makes it 28 within a few weeks and possibly 32 with the potential addition of Damon, Pujols, Suzuki and Rodriguez I think that there will be a period of time where no one will reach 3,000 hits making membership in that club as exclusive as the 300 win club.

Any opinions? Additions and/or subtractions? Let me know.

FH

For Further Reading:
- Click Here for an interactive exhibit on the 3,000 Hit club presented by the National Baseball Hall of Fame at Cooperstown website

Possible AL Triple Crown and NL ERA Dominance

Amid all the talk of Robinson Cano having an MVP type season for the New York Yankees this season, there is a possibility that there may be a legitimate shot at someone achieving the batting Triple Crown for the first time in 43 years. To clarify, the batting Triple Crown is achieved by one person leading the league in the following categories: Batting Average, Home Runs and Runs Batted In. This milestone has been reached by only 14 players with Carl Yastrzemski of the Boston Red Sox being the last to do so in 1967. The Triple Crown has happened nine times in the American League while only five times in the National League. Two players have won the Triple Crown twice: Ted Williams (1942, 1947) of the Boston Red Sox and Rogers Hornsby (1922, 1925) of the St. Louis Cardinals. The remaining list is full of baseball royalty such as Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Chuck Klein and Joe Medwick among others. So who among the current crop of Major League players in is contention? Read on.

- Miguel Cabrera
Last season, Cabrera garnered the one first place vote for MVP that did not go to eventual league MVP Joe Mauer. This season he continues the torrid pace with a .337 average (currently 3rd place behind Josh Hamilton .347 and Justin Morneau .342), 22 homers (currently tied for 2nd place behind Jose Bautista 25) and is first in RBI's with 79.

- Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers
Hamilton continues to write the story of his miraculous comeback from drug abuse and adversity by currently leading the majors with a .347 average, has 22 homers (currently tied for 2nd place behind Jose Bautista 25) and has 66 RBI's (currently 7th).

-Vladimir Guerrero of the Texas Rangers
Arguably the longshot of the three to win the Triple Crown, Guerrero has re-established himself as an offensive force in baseball after a number of injury plagued seasons with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (I really hate having to call the Angels that, LOL). Guerrero is batting .322 (currently 8th) with 20 homers (currently 11th) and 76 RBI (currently 2nd behind Miguel Cabrera)

There you go folks, here is a listing of some of the dominant well-rounded hitting in the post "*" baseball landscape (as my friend Harper refers to the "steroid" era) during the recently christened Year of the Pitcher. And speaking of the Year of the Pitcher.

-The National League ERA race
Ubaldo Jimenez generated the early season buzz in terms of a low ERA. As I posted on my Latinoball blog page on June 13, 2010 called Ubaldo Jimenez is Chasing History at the time Jimenez was 12-1 with 1.16 ERA. This placed him in the company of such pitchers as Juan Marichal and Eddie Cicotte while being in mentioned in the discussion of possibly reaching the pinnacle that Bob Gibson accomplished in 1968: 1.12 ERA. Since then, Jimenez is still on pace for an over 20-win season. He is currently 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA in 127 innings pitched with 3 complete games. Jimenez has 113 K's, 46 BB's and has given up 87 hits for a WHIP of 1.05. This is definitely not shabby in the least but Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins has stepped his game up to trump Jimenez.

Johnson is currently 10-3 with a league leading 1.62 ERA in 128 innings pitched with 1 complete game. Johnson has 130 K's with only 28 BB's and has given up 96 hits for a WHIP of 0.97. This is especially impressive since the Florida Marlins are not an offensive force and Johnson has single-handed done his best to balance the lack of offense with a lack of runs allowed. In his last 10 starts, Johnson is 6-2 with a 0.76 ERA in 71 innings pitched. Johnson has only given up 6 earned runs in those last 10 starts. What is a shame is that in both losses in that stretch, Johnson has given up only 2 earned runs in 15 innings pitched (one was a 2-1 loss to the San Diego Padres and the other was a 1-0 loss where Roy Halliday pitched a perfect game for the Phillies). It gets even worse for Johnson. During the two no-decisions that he is credited with during that stretch, Johnson gave up only 2 earned runs in 14 innings pitched. That is truly amazing feat of pitching in a situation where run support is limited. But that's not all. Let me shed light on one more pitcher.

Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals should not be left out of the discussion. Wainwright is currently 14-5 with a 2.02 ERA in 142.1 inning pitched with 4 complete games and 1 shutout. Wainwright has 130 K's, 30 BB's with 107 hits for a WHIP of 1.00. Wainwright poses a serious threat to both Jimenez and Johnson in the Cy Young award race. I'm thinking he's salivating for another crack at the award especially since he went 19-8 with a 2.63 ERA last season with the award going to San Francisco's Tim Lincecum.

As with the Triple Crown race in the AL, it'll be interesting to see which one of the three pitchers I highlighted will come out on top in the NL.

FH

For Further Reading:
- Click Here for a listing of the Triple Crown Winners from Baseball Almanac.com