2011 Award Predictions Part 1

Here are my predictions for the 2011 End of Year awards

AL manager of the year

A week or two ago I told my buddy Jake that I believed that the award would come down to Jim Leyland of the Detroit Tigers and Ron Washington of the Texas Rangers. Well folks, as we all know things have changed in the MLB landscape. With their torrid run during the month of September, (9-games back on September 3rd) the Tampa Bay Rays caught the Boston Red Sox and won the AL Wild Card slot in dramatic fashion. That alone would be enough but the Rays were decimated at the beginning of the season through free-agency losses and trades and still were able to reach the post-season through savvy signings and faith in their farm system. Without going on any further, your 2011 American League Manager of the Year will be Joe Maddon of the Tampa Bay Rays. 

NL Manager of the Year

In almost similar fashion to the AL, the Wild card, the race came down to the last day of the season with the team who was down almost double digits in the standings winning the last playoff slot. The St. Louis Cardinals, led by future Hall of Famer Tony LaRussa, came storming back from 8.5 games to catch and pass the Atlanta Braves. 

Unlike the AL Manager of the Year race, I don't think the Wild Card manager will win. Two rookie managers led their teams to division titles but one did so following a 2010 campaign where his team went 65-97, did not do much in the off-season and was not expected to do much this season. In leading the Arizona Diamondbacks to a 94-68 record and a National League West Division Title, I believe that the 2011 National League Manager of the Year award will go to Kirk Gibson. In doing so Gibson would become the 3rd player to win MVP and Manager of the Year (Frank Robinson and Joe Torre) (February 20, 2011 - Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)

AL Rookie of the Year
Early indicators showed that Seattle's rookie starting pitcher Michael Pineda would be a favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year. His early season production reflected the faith of the prognosticators but the season can be long, production can fall and others step into focus. 

This is the case with New York Yankees rookie starter Ivan Nova. After a brief stint in the majors in 2010, Nova was seen as being a potential candidate for the fifth starter in the rotation even being sent down before the All-Star break. By seasons end, Nova emerged as a viable number two starter. Nova finished the season with a strong 16-4 record with 3.70 ERA in 28 games and 165.1 innings pitched and 167 hits with 98 strikeouts and 57 walks with a WHIP of 1.331. His performance had earned him a start for the Yankees in Game Two of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers. But I believe that won't be enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. I believe that the award will go to a player who has been deemed to be the future of a franchise in dire need of a superstar franchise player and who had indeed lived up to the hype in his rookie season. I believe that the AL Rookie of the Year Award will go to Kansas City Royals first-baseman Eric Hosmer. 

Hosmer was called up on May 5, 2011 and never looked back. In 128 games, Hosmer hit .293 with 153 hits (27 2B/3 3B/19 HR) and 78 RBIs and 66 runs scored. Hosmer's OPS was .799 (.334 OBP/.465 SLG) and struck out 82 times with 39 walks and 11 stolen bases in 16 attempts. Whether or not he continues to live to the hype remains to be seen but for his rookie year he has.

NL Rookie of the Year
This was deemed to be a year of pitching dominance in the National League. The defending champion San Francisco Giants had their vaunted starting pitching, Milwaukee made moves to improve their front five and let me knot forget the Murderers Row of starters in Philadelphia. When the early magazine and article photos on the Phillies rotation came out, the starting five would be Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton. Little did people in Baseball know that a rookie would crack their rotation and fit right into the number four slot in the rotation. Vance Worley 11-3 record with 3.01 ERA in 25 games and 131.2 innings pitched and 116 hits with 119 strikeouts and 46 walks with a WHIP of 1.230. But like Ivan Nova, I don't believe that it will be enough to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. My Prediction for the award is Craig Kimbrell of the Atlanta Braves.

Kimbrel posted a 4-3 record with a 2.10 ERA in 79 games and 77 innings pitched with 48 hits, 129 strikeouts and 32 walks for a WHIP of 1.039. Kimbrel set the major league record for the longest streak of scoreless games (38 appearances). Though he seemed to stumble near the end of the season, I believe he will still win the National League Rookie of the Year.

AL Comeback Player of the Year

Though the New York Yankees have two viable candidates in Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, I believe the award will go to Kansas City Royals outfielder Melky Cabrera.

Cabrera hit .305 with 201 hits (44 2B/5 3B/18 HR) and 87 RBIs and 102 runs scored. Cabrera's OPS was .809 (.339 OBP/.470 SLG) and struck out 94 times with 35 walks and 20 stolen bases in 30 attempts.

NL Comeback Player of the Year

I can admit when I'm wrong. During the offseason I wrote the following about one particular signing the St. Louis Cardinals made: 

The outfield trio will be without Jim Edmonds who chose to retire. What I find puzzling, is that Cardinals' GM John Mozeliak chose the plodding Lance Berkman to replace Edmonds. Berkman showed nothing while with the Yankees down the stretch last season. He played first for the Houston Astros since he didn't have the range to play in the outfield and he's going to play one of the corners for the Cardinals. Unbelievable. Colby Rasmus is going to have to take his vitamins daily to have the energy to cover the range that Berkman can't cover. Not to mention that Berkman is no longer the hitter he was during his heyday with the Astros. Maybe returning to the NL will be good for him. It better for the sake of the Redbirds.

Well, Lance "You're a Bum" (inside joke folks) Berkman lost weight, got into shape and was a NL MVP candidate at the All-Star break. Berkman stepped up his game when Albert Pujols went down with injury and has been a big reason why his team is tied with the #1 seed Philadelphia Philles in the NLDS.

Berkman hit .301 with 147 hits (23 2B/2 3B/31 HR) and 94 RBIs and 90 runs scored. Berkman's OPS was .959 (.412 OBP/.547 SLG) and struck out 93 times with 92 walks.

Ok folks, that's it for now. Next prediction post will be the AL and NL Cy Young Award.

FH

My Predictions for the 2010 AL and NL Year-End Awards

In today's post I wanted to state my predictions for the end of the year awards in MLB.

-AL MVP
The consensus seems to believe that the award will go to Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. I believe that even though he had an amazing season helping the Rangers win their first AL West title since the 1999 season, I don't think that he's the MVP of the league. My choice for MVP is Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.

Similar to last year's vote where Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira were held to a standard where they split votes from each other since they were part of a highly offensive team the same should apply to the Texas Rangers. Hamilton batted a league high .359 with 28 HRs and 100 RBI in a lineup that included a rejuvenated Vladimir Guerrero who hit .300 with 29 HRs and 115 RBI and Nelson Cruz who hit .318 with 22 Hrs and 78 RBI. That's not even taking into account the accomplishments of Ian Kinsler and Michael Young.

On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera hit .328 with 38 HRs and 126 RBI in a lineup whose only bright spot was AL Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Jackson. It can be said that Cabrera was the main reason the Detroit Tigers finised a disappointing 81-81. Texas lost Hamilton's services for the whole month of September and went 14-10 in September. As impressive as Hamilton's season was I think Texas still ends up in a favorable position in both this year's weak AL West and in the standings (as a whole) without Hamilton than Detroit would have without Cabrera.

- NL MVP
This race is a bit more complicated to predict since there was a serious NL Triple Crown race heading into September. The trio of reigning NL MVP Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals at .312 with 48 HRs and 118 RBI, Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds at .324 37 HRs and 113 RBI and the NL Batting Champion Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies at .336 with 34 HRs and 117 RBI are the main candidates for the award. Gonzalez thrived as a starter in his third season in the league though his production tailed off somewhat at the end of the season. Pujols continues to cement himself as the best player of this generation with his production at the plate. But I think that Votto will be the winner of the award since his continued rise as one of the National League's premier players was one of the main reasons that the Reds have reached the playoffs for the first time since 1995.

- AL Cy Young
This race will be the breakout race where Sabermetricians will assert their growing influence in the game. I've already discussed the position of the Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez in the CY Young Race. I don't want to beat a dead horse here since it was covered by me in my post Felix Hernandez for AL Cy Young? but I still can't see a pitcher who went 13-12 for a team who lost 101 games and did not pitch in one game that mattered winning the award. Both C.C. Sabathia and David Price pitched in pressure games whose teams depended on their victories on the mound. Both Sabathia at 21-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 237.2 IP with 2 complete games and 197 K's in 34 games started and Price at 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 208.2 IP pitched with 2 complete games and 188 K's in 32 games started in playoff type games day in and day out for their respective teams and the teams aces they pitched against. To be fair to Hernandez, he finished the season at 13-12 with a 2.27 ERA in 249.2 IP with 6 complete games and 232 K's in 34 games started.

Though I believe that C.C. Sabathia should win the award, I believe that the voters who are ardent Sabermetricians will vote Hernandez as A.L. Cy Young. In doing so, the voters will be setting a precedent by saying that wins for a starter and games pitches and won in pressure situations do not matter any longer. We'll see how this one plays out.

- NL Cy Young
This award will be awarded along more traditional lines. Both Roy Halladay of the Philadelphia Phillies and Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals with their 20-win seasons will garner the majority of the votes. Halladay actually finished at 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and an astounding 250.0 IP with 9 complete games and 219 K's in 33 games started. Wainwright finished at 20-11 with a slightly lower 2.42 ERA in 230.1 IP with 5 complete games and 213 K's in 33 games started. Ubaldo Jimenez at 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA with 221.2 IP with 4 complete games and 214 K's in 33 games started will get some consideration but his first half record of 15-1 outshines his second half record of 4-7. Though the race looks close on paper, I think Roy Halladay joins the ranks of pitchers who have won the Cy Young in both leagues (Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens are the others who have accomplished the feat).

- AL Rookie of the Year
Though Austin Jackson of the Detroit Tigers became one of four players (Shoeless Joe Jackson, Juan Samuel and Hanley Ramirez are the other three) in the history of MLB to have 180 hits, 20 doubles, 10 triples, 25 stolen bases and 100 runs in his first season to accompany his .293 average, I believe that Texas closer Neftali Feliz will win the award. Feliz was handed the ball game in and game out and produced with a 4-3 record with a 2.73 ERA converting 40 of 43 save opportunities striking out 71 while only walking 18 helping the Rangers reach the postseason. Aside from Cliff Lee, Neftali Perez is probably the only other pitcher on the Rangers rotation that people know instantly.

- NL Rookie of the Year
This award has been much discussed at my job between Justin and myself. As of a few weeks ago, I said that Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves would win the award. Heyward hit .277 with 18 HRs and 72 RBI with 128 K's and 91 walks in 520 At-bats. But after reflecting on the numbers of San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey I think he wins the award. Posey finished the season at .305 with 18 HRs and 67 RBI with 55 K's and 30 walks in 406 at-bats (114 less that Heyward). Both players are similar in OPS with Heyward at .849 and Posey at .862 but I think Posey playing the most demanding position in baseball for a team that many people (including myself) predicted would not even make the playoffs let alone win the NL West has stood out more as the NL Rookie of the Year.

-AL Manager of the Year
I've already gave my two cents on this race with my past post The Minnesota Twins Clinch the AL Central...Again!. I think that Twins manager Ron Gardenhire deserves to win the award by piloting the Minnesota Twins to a 94-68 record and the AL Central division title. Gardenhire is a model of consistency that has led to 5 second place finishes in the AL Manager of the Year voting. If what I am reading correctly in some of the articles as of late, he might end up with a sixth second place finish.

An argument is being made for Terry Francona of the Boston Red Sox winning the award. It is amazing how the team was able to finish the season at 89-73 in a demanding AL East with the injuries that decimated the team throughout the year. But I think that the voters will elect Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington as AL Manager of the Year. Washington led the Rangers to a 90-72 record to win the AL West with a team that no one thought would win 90 games let alone the division. I feel bad for Gardenhire who as I said before deserves to finally win the award. But alas he will be the proverbial bridesmaid to Washington as the bride.

- NL Manager of the Year
This one is a bit tougher to predict since Dusty Baker of the Cincinnati Reds at 91-71, Bruce Bochy and the San Francisco Giants at 92-70 and Bud Black of the San Diego Padres at 90-72 over-exceeded all expectations with how their teams played this season. I think Baker wins the award. The Reds rotation does not stack up to the vaunted pitching staff of Bochy's Giants headed by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Johnathan Sanchez and Barry Zito. I place Baker in a similar category as Bud Black since both teams were not expected to do much but rebuild during the 2010 season. Black will garner serious votes and consideration with how the Padres played this season but I think he falls short with how his team seemed to run out of energy at the end by losing both the NL West and the NL Wild Card to the Giants and Braves respectively.

Well, there you have it folks. In my next post, I'll look back on my pre-season predictions and see how accurate I was in my choices for who would win the divisions and wild cards.

FH

2009 Managers of the Year

So all the major baseball awards (aside from the Most Valuable Player) have been given out. I'll focus in on the American and National League Manager of the Year awards. Mike Scioscia of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Jim Tracy of the Colorado Rockies have won the AL and NL managers of the year awards respectively. Let me first cover the AL vote.

Scioscia won the award with a total of 106 points (15 1st place votes, 10 2nd place and 1 3rd place). Following Scioscia in the voting was Ron Gardenhire of the Minnesota Twins with 72 points and Joe Girardi of the New York Yankees with 34 points. Though the Angels finished 1st in the AL West and dealt with adverity with the death of Nick Adenhart I don't believe that he should have won the award. Allow me to address Joe Girardi.

As a Yankees fan I believe that Girardi had as much right to win the award as anyone else. But he suffers (as does his ace pitcher CC Sabathia which I will discuss later) from the expectations that the Yankees have throughout the league. How can a manager like Joe Girardi with the talent that he has at his disposal not succeed though we all know that having massive amounts of talent on your team doesn't guarantee success. Instead of celebrating the fact that the Yankees won 103 games and had the best record in the league (103-59 .636), it works negatively to Girardi's position as the Yankees should have done it. I guess that's what comes with managing the Yankees. So who do I believe should have won the award? Ron Gardenhire!

I believe that Scioscia should be held to the same standard as Joe Girardi since his team has talent comparable to both the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. Aside from losing both Francisco Rodriguez and Mark Texiera in the offseason, both players were suitably replaced by Brian Fuentes, Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu. Scioscia's team was virtually stocked with all of their superstars for the entire season. This is not the case with the perennial 2nd place finisher Gardenhire.

Gardenhire has now finished 2nd in the AL manager of the year voting 5 times. This season was even more impressive since the team only has 3 superstars in Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan and Morneau was lost to the team with 3 weeks left. With the team being behind 5.5 games in the standings with 21 games remaining the team went 17-4. Even more amazing was that the Twins were coming back from three games down with four to play to force a division tie and a dramatic 1 game playoff against the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central title for the 5th time in the last 8 seasons. I guess Gardenhire needs to have the Twins win a World Series to finally win the award.

Now on to the NL Manager of the Year vote. To me this one was a no-brainer. Jim Tracy of the Colorado Rockies won the award with a total of 151 points (29 1st place votes, 2 2nd place). Tony Larussa of the St. Louis Cardinals placed 2nd with 55 points and Joe Torre of the Los Angeles Dodgers placed 3rd with 33 points. when Tracy was hired as manager of the Colorado Rockies after the firing of Clint Hurdle on May 29 with the team playing at a record of 18-28. After that point the team played to a record of 74-42 (.638 winning percentage) finishing with a franchise best 92-70 (.568 winning percentage) and capturing the NL Wild Card.

For more information on these awards and others, please check out the following link: 2009 MLB Awards on MLB.com Please feel free to comment with your agreement/disagreement. Maybe you believe someone else should have gotten consideration. Let me know, I'd like to hear about it. In my next post, I'll cover the AL and NL Cy Young Awards winners and I'll give my prediction for the MVP awards.