2011 ALDS NLDS Predictions

The first pitch of the 2011 MLB Playoff season will be thrown in roughly three hours when Texas Rangers left-hander takes the mound in Texas against the AL Wild Card winner Tampa Bay Rays. In anticipation of today's games, I've decided to make my predictions for the first round of the playoffs. Here goes.

#2 Texas Rangers vs. #4 Tampa Bay Rays
In a rematch from last year's first round match-up, the Rangers have home field advantage when the meet the Tampa Bay Rays. Holding a slight lead in the season series against the Rays (5-4) the Rangers just might be the most balanced team in the AL. But I have a problem going against the hot team. The Rays crawled back from a nine game deficit in the Wild Card race and did so by winning the playoff slot in dramatic fashion with a walk-off by franchise player Evan Longoria. I believe the Rays will ride the wave of euphoria to a first round defeat of the Rangers.

My Pick: Rays over Rangers in Five

#1 New York Yankees vs. #3 Detroit Tigers

In a season where the New York Yankees were picked to finish second and even third in the AL East, the Bombers continued to prove those naysayers wrong all season long rolling along to win the AL East and lead the AL with the best regular season record. They face a Detroit Tigers team who is led by Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander and MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera among others. The Tigers hold a slight lead in the season series (4-3) against the Yankees and the spotlight is shining specifically in the marque pitching duel of C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander. I think the Yankees have the offense that can make Verlander work. There really isn't an easy out in their lineup and I think that will be the deciding factor in who wins the series. I believe there is too much being made about the Yankees rotation issues. I mean, all the playoff teams have pitching issues with the exception of the Philadelphia Phillies.

My Pick: Yankees over Tigers in Four

#1 Philadephia Phillies vs. #4 St. Louis Cardinals

I'm going to go on a major ledge here but I think if anyone in the NL can beat the Phillies at this point in time it is the St. Louis Cardinals. Why? well, like the Rays they are super hot. Pujols, Carpenter and company should thank Mr. Tony Plush of the Milwaukee Brewers for lighting a fire under them. Since that series with the Brewers, the Cardinals are 16-6 and have been playing some of the best baseball in the league and the Phillies have the privilege of playing them in the first round. the season series is firmly in the favor of the Cardinals (6-3). And the Phillies? What can I say. They have an astounding offense, the best pitching in the league and a very capable manager. So I must be nuts with what I have to say next. Right? Even I have doubts in my prediction but what the heck. Never let it be said that I don't like climbing on the ledge for the fun of it.

My Pick: Cardinals over Phillies in Five

#2 Milwaukee Brewers vs. #4 Arizona Diamondbacks

The Brewers come into this series with high hopes after setting a franchise record in wins with 96 wins. This team is offensively stacked and is led by MVP candidates Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. On the pitching side, their rotation in solid. On the other side Arizona is led by Cy Young candidate and 21-game winner Ian Kennedy. They have shown that they can compete with the Brewers having an edge in the season series (4-3). I have to be honest, aside from Juston Upton, I really don't know much about the Arizona Diamondbacks offense. Maybe that's what Arizona has counted on all season while they won game after game on their way to the NL West title. That said, I have a hard time seeing the Brewers losing in the first round.

My Pick: Brewers over Diamondbacks in Four

So there it goes. Lets see if next week I'll have egg on my face or a big smile.

FH

A Return Look at Juan Miranda

Back in October of 2010 in a post called Juan Miranda's Chances in MLB, I looked at whether the Cuban born and Dominican nationalized could succeed in the Majors. With half of the 2011 season done, I've decided to take a look at Miranda's performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks. I have to say, that as optimistic that I was, I might have to agree with various bloggers that Miranda might not be MLB material. 

As of today, Miranda is no longer with the Diamondbacks, having been optioned to AAA Reno Aces of the Pacific Coast League (PCL). Coming out of Spring training Miranda was slated to be the team's regular first baseman. That plan never fully came to fruition since Miranda was platooned with Xavier Nady and Russell Branyan. His production with the bat was also a determining factor in his not becoming the starting first baseman.

Miranda had a solid month of may where he batted .262 with 4 homers and 12 RBI and an OPS of .915 (.377 OBP%/.538 SLG%) and seemed to get into a solid rhythm. But his lack of performance in June was marked by a .151 batting average and an OPS of .494 (.211 OBP%/.283 SLG%). His slide continued into July with a slightly better .176 batting average and an OPS of .594 (.300 OBP%/.294 SLG%). 

At the time of his demotion, Miranda's statistics for the season were: batting average of .213 with 37 hits (8 2B/2 3B/7 HR) with 23 RBI. His OPS was .717 (.315 OBP%/.402 SLG%) with 23 walks and 48 strikeouts. So where does this leave Miranda. 

AAA prospect Brandon Allen, who many believed was the favorite to play  first for the Diamondbacks during Spring Training has been called up and will step into the same platoon that Miranda was in with Nady and Branyan. Barring injury, I can't see Miranda being called up to the big leagues until September. Shame, I thought that the change of scenery and a new opportunity would help him. I guess we need to make the best of said opportunity and for whatever reason, Miranda was not able to.

FH
For Further Reading:
- Click Here for Amit Lal's article Diamondbacks Roster Shuffling - Allen, Enright, and Blum Up, Heilman, Pena, and Miranda Down dated July 19, 2011 from dbacksvenom.com
- Click Here for Amit Lal's article Is it Time for the Diamondbacks to make a change at 1B? dated July 2, 2011 from dbacksvenom.com

Winter Meetings Day One Part Two

Here are some more baeball transactions that occured (or didn't in some cases) during Day One of the Winter Meetings:

- J.J. Putz signs with the Arizona Diamondbacks
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal on his Twitter feed announced that the Arizona Diamondbacks have just signed reliever J.J. Putz to a 2-yr deal with club option, pending physical. Prorumors.com says the deal breaks down in the following manner:

Ken Rosenthal says that Putz will be paid $4 million in 2011, $4.5 million 2012, and there's a $6.5 million club option or $1.5 million buyout in 2013.

After having a horrible 2009 with the New York Mets, Putz returned to form with his 2010 campaign with the Chicago White Sox. Putz compiled a 7-5 record with a 2.83 ERA in 60 appearances. In 54 innings pitched, Putz struck out 65 batters while walking only 15 and giving up 41 hits for a WHIP of 1.037. Putz saved 3 games for the White Sox. The signing of Putz will bring a stable arm to a bullpen that was very ineffective for the Diamondbacks this past season.

- Click Here for J.J. Putz' career statistics from Baseball Reference.com

- Aaron Harang signs with Padres
Follow the Padres on their Twitter feed announces that Aaron Harang, formerly of the Cincinnati Reds, has signed: a One year, $3.5 million plus a mutual option. Working to get terms of option. During the 2010 season for the Reds, Harang compiled a 6-7 record 5.32 ERA in 22 games. He struck out 82 batters and walked 38 while giving up 139 hits for a WHIP of 1.585. Harang seems to have fallen off from his successful years of 2006 and 2007 when he went 16-11 and 16-6 respectively. I seem to be repeating myself but as with Mark Reynolds and the pitchers traded for him in that deal earlier today, maybe the change of scenery and some hometown cooking will do him good.

- Click Here for Aaron Harang's career statistics from Baseball Reference.com

- Dan Johnson re-signs with the Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Tribune has reported on their Twitter feed that the depleted Tampa Bay Rays have re-signed 1B/DH Dan Johnson to a one-year contract. I believe this is an important move for the Rays since their first baseman of the last few years, Carlos Peña, is a free-agent and not seen as returning to the Rays. After spending the 2009 season with the Yokohama Bay Stars of the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Johnson returned to the Rays for the 2010 season. Spending the majority of the 2010 season playing for the Durham Bulls of the International League before being called up. (PHOTO CREDIT: Steve Nesius/Associated Press)

In very limited but important action for the Rays, Johnson batted .198 with 7HRs and 23 RBI. Though the numbers don't seem very impressive, Johnson played four positions for the Rays last year (1B/3B/LF/RF) and his versatility is needed and respected on a team such as Tampa's. I saw this kid hit two homers in a pivotal division game against the Yankees which was overshadowed by the now infamous Derek Jeter faked hit by a ball trick. This game propelled the Rays back into first place and I daresay it may have cost the Yankees the division title. I believe that we'll see more of Johnson this upcoming season in a much more expanded capacity.

- Click Here for Dan Johnson's career statistics from BaseballCube.com

- The Athletics/Iwakuma Negotiations Fall Through
In what comes to no surprise, the A's were not able to come to terms with Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma. The rights to Iwakuma go back to the Rakuten Golden Eagles and the $19.1 million dollar posting fee is returned to the Oakland Athletics.(PHOTO CREDIT http://cardsandgraphs.blogspot.com)

The story was reported by both Susan Sussler of the San Francisco Chronicle and Jane Lee of the MLBlogs network. Lee states the following as being the position of both Iwakuma and the Athletics during the negotiations:

Iwakuma and his agent, Don Nomura, were reportedly asking for a contract that would average $12 million per season over three years -- numbers that reflect the earnings of fellow Japanese pitchers Hiroki Kuroda (three years, $35.3 million) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (six years, $52 million).

However, the A's were said to have offered $15.25 million over four years -- factoring in the posting fee cost -- as a "take it or leave it" approach. By leaving it, Iwakuma will stay in Japan and become a free agent at the end of the 2011 season.

Sussler also reports in her Twitter feed that:

#Athletics made it clear to Iwakuma that they'll have interest in him next year when he is a free agent.

Whether or not Iwakuma would be interested in playing for the Athletics next season when he becomes a free agent is unknown. Without burning any bridges I would imagine that he would not want to after being quoted as saying "the Athletics really didn't want me." . This leaves a hole in the Athletics' rotation since they traded starter Vin Mazzaro to the Kansas City Royals for Jose DeJesus earlier in the offseason. We'll see where they go from here.

- Click Here for my prior post A's Win Bidding for Iwakuma. Why Bid? from November 8, 2010

- Kevin Correia signs with the Pittsburgh Pirates
According to ESPN's Jerry Krasnick on his Twitter feed, starting pitcher Kevin Correia, formerly of the San Diego Padres, has reached agreement with Pittsburgh Pirates on a 2-year, $8 million deal, pending a physical. Correia compiled a 10-10 record with a 5.40 ERA. In 26 games for the Padres, Correia struck out 115 while walking 64 and allowing 152 hits for a WHIP of 1.490.

In joining the Pirates, he joins a young rotation that is already made up of Paul Maholm, James McDonald and Ross Ohlendorf.

- Click Here for Kevin Correia's career statistics from Baseball Reference.com

That's all that I am posting on the first day of the Winter Meetings. If anything happens from now into tomorrow, I'll post it later.

FH

Winter Meetings Day One

The Winter Meetings are in full swing in Orlando and there are a few deals that have gone down. Here goes:

- The Milwaukee Brewers get Shaun Marcum from Toronto
The Milwaukee Brewers get 29-year old starting pitcher Shaun Marcum to bolster their pitching staff in exchange for top prospect 20-year old second baseman Brett Lawrie. Marcum had his most productive season for the Blue Jays last season by going 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA. In 31 games started, Marcum struck out 165 while only walking 45 and giving up 181 hits in 195.1 innings pitched for a WHIP of 1.147.

Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel describes Marcum as being the following type of pitcher:

He is not an overpowering pitcher, usually throwing his fastball in the 87-89 mph range. But Marcum has an excellent changeup, a dependable slider and also mixes in curve balls on occasion. Thanks to that repertoire and his excellent control, he has been a strikeout pitcher (7.3 per nine innings) despite not being able to overpower hitters.

Marcum recovered nicely from his Tommy John ligament replacement surgery in his right elbow that kept him out of the whole 2009 season. Marcum is a good pitcher who kept the Yankees at bay a few games that I saw him pitch against them. I believe that he will compliment Yovani Gallardo in the Brewers rotation.

In return for Marcum, the Blue Jays get British Columbia native Brett Lawrie. In his second season in the minors with Double A Huntsville of the Southern League, Lawrie batted .285 with 8 Hrs and 63 RBI. He had 158 hits (36 2B/16 3B/8 HRs) and showed very good speed and aggressiveness on the base paths with 30 stolen bases while being caught 13 times. Jordan M describes Lawrie in his blogpost The Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum Trade at the BrewCrewBall.com webpage:

I've been on Brett Lawrie's bandwagon since he was drafted, and he's a talented hitter who put up a great year as a 20-year old in AA. But if anyone was expendable, it may have been him. I always felt that Lawrie would hold his own as a hitter even if moved down the defensive spectrum-- as a third basemen or corner outfielder, he would likely be an above-average offensive producer down the road. The problem is that right now, the Brewers have 5 players who fit that description (and yes I'm counting Mat Gamel). Lawrie's value to the Brewers was tied in his ability to stick at second base-- and the Brewers' willingness to trade him, I think, speaks about their confidence that he could do so. I think it also speaks about their confidence to get a deal done with Rickie Weeks, and possibly says something about how highly they think of Scooter Gennet.

Both teams seem to benefit from the deal though the Brewers seem to have the edge in benefiting from the deal in the here and now. We'll see how it plays out in the long haul.

- Click Here for Jordan M's article The Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum trade from BrewCrewBall.com dated December 6, 2010
- Click Here for Tom Haudricourt's article Brewers to Get Toronto Pitcher Marcum from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel webpage dated December 5, 2010
- Click Here to access Shawn Marcum's career statistics from Baseball Reference.com
- Click Here to access Brett Lawrie's minor league statistics from BaseballCube.com

- Mark Reynolds traded to the Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles made a move to improve their offense from the right side by trading right-handed relievers Kameron Mickolio and David Hernandez for Arizona's Mark Reynolds. In Reynolds, the Orioles get a batter who can hit for power and score runs but is heavily prone to striking out. In four major league seasons with the Diamondbacks, Reynolds has averaged 35 HRs with 100 RBI with 221 strikeouts and 75 walks. Reynolds has lead the league in strikeouts three years running with 204 in 2008, 223 in 2009 and 211 in 2010 while lowering his batting average from .260 in 2009 to .198 in 2010.

In return Arizona gets 6'9" right handed power pitching reliever Kameron Mickolio and minor league reliever David Hernandez. In terms of the relievers Baseball Musings.com describes them as so:

Mickolio strikes out a ton of batters, but he’s wild. In the minors, his walks were high but okay. In the majors so far they are out of control. Hernandez is pretty much in the same boat. If Reynolds can get his batting average back up again, this trade will be a steal for Baltimore.

I guess if he can get his average back up in the .260 to .280 range then the deal will work for the Orioles. Maybe a change of scenery for all the players involved will be beneficial. Have to say this about Reynolds move into Baltimore, he is being traded into a division with some high powered pitching in Sabathia, Price, Beckett, and Lester to name a few and maybe Cliff Lee. He might feast on all the power pitching for the O's or he might just starve on his steady diet of Special K's (sorry couldn't help that one, LOL).

- Click Here for Dan Connolly and Jeff Zrebiec's article Orioles acquire Mark Reynolds from Diamondbacks from the BaltimoreSun.com dated December 6, 2010
- Click Here to access an interesting analysis on Mark Reynolds' at-bats from Baseball Musings.com
- Click Here to access Mark Reynolds' career statistics from Baseball Reference.com
- Click Here to access Kameron Mickolio's career statistics from Baseball Reference.com
- Click Here to access David Hernandez minor league statistics from Baseball Reference.com

- Melvin Mora signs with the Arizona Diamondbacks
Not waiting to fill their hole at third, the Diamondbacks signed veteran Melvin Mora to a 1-year $2 million dollar contract. In his 2010 season with the Colorado Rockies Mora batted .285 with 7 HRs and 45 RBI. He had 90 hits (12 2B/5 3B/7 HR) in 354 at-bats and struck out 53 times while drawing 35 walks. Mora will bring some stability to the infield and a good head at the plate than his predecessor. The strikeouts will decrease significantly and I believe that Mora will be more of a table-setter than a slugger for the Diamondbacks. (PHOTO CREDIT: Getty Images)

- Click Here for Melvin Mora's career statistics from Baseball Reference.com

Ok folks, that's it for now. When I hear of any other moves and trades at the winter meetings, I'll post them.

FH

Curious Trivia Questions from Last Night

There weren't many game on last night and I saw two trivia questions that I found real curious and interesting. Here goes.

1. Which pitcher has the most wins for one franchise
The answer is Walter Perry "Big Train" Johnson. In 20 seasons with the Washington Senators (1907-1927), Johnson compiled a 417-279 record with a 2.17 ERA (WOW!!!!!!), 4913 Hits, 1363 BB, 3509 K's and a WHIP of 1.061. To make his numbers look even more astonishing, Johnson appeared in 802 games of which he started 666 and completed 531 of those games with 110 of those games being shutouts. Johnson had 10 consecutive seasons of 20 or more win seasons with his best being in 1913 when he was 36-7 with a 1.14 ERA with 232 Hits in 346 innings pitched. Johnson walked only 38 with 243 K's. Johnson started 48 games, completed 29 and threw 11 shutouts. Not surprisingly, Johnson won the first of his two MVP awards (1913 and 1924). Johnson is second in total wins just being Cy Young. Johnson was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in the inaugural class of 1936. His performance was truly amazing since in the 20 years he played in Washington, the Senators finished in 1st twice (1924/1925), in 2nd twice (1912/1913) and won only one World Series in two attempts (1924 against the New York Giants). Truly amazing.

2. Aside from the Arizona Diamonbacks, there are 4 other franchises that have not had a player win the regular season MVP award, who are they.
Myron and I sat there trying to guess who the teams were. I had guessed that at least two of the remaining four had to be part of the recent expansion teams. I chose the Florida Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays. I also figured the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals have never had an MVP and then I was stumped. I thought maybe San Diego or maybe the Milwaukee Brewers didn't have an MVP, but the answer truly surprised me: The New York Mets. The Mets have never had a regular season MVP.

Now I was a bit taken aback at that since I was sure that at the very least, the Mets would have had an MVP either in 1969 or 1986. But researching the MVP winners list, Willie McCovey won the award in 1969 and Mike Schmidt had won the award in 1986. Truly surprising indeed.